Americanly Yours

Im sure that everyone has heard about the “Cash for Clunkers” program.  This is another one of those government programs that sounds like a good idea until you really think it through.

In an effort to both stimulate the economy and aid the environment, Congress and the Obama Administration enacted a $1,000,000,000 [$1 billion] which allowed people to trade in old cars with low gas mileage and receive a discount of up to $4,500 on new cars with high gas mileage.

Because protecting the environment was one of the goals of this program (and to protect against fraud), dealers were required to pour a solution into the engine of the car that was traded in which permanently disables the car.  The car is permanently taken off the road and is recycled.

Sounds good, right?  Not quite.

Who buys new cars?  People with money, of course.  The rest of the driving population buys their cars used from people who feel the need to buy a new car every few years.  By disabling used cars, the government is permanently removing their supply from the market.  Doing so prevents lower and middle class Americans from buying that vehicle, and has the net effect of raising the prices for used cars.

Someone who is still driving the 1995 Cadillac DeVille that they bought from their neighbor 7 years ago probably isnt very likely to go out and buy a 2010 Honda Accord, even under this program.  But, they would be much more likely to purchase the 2003 model DeVille that their neighbor bought after selling the 1995 DeVille 7 years ago.

But, rather than allowing the market to work in this fashion, the “Cash for Clunkers” program removes the 2003 DeVille–a perfectly good car–from the market and makes it tougher for the person still driving the 1995 DeVille to find a used car that fits his budget.

My personal opinion was that one of the reasons that this bill was passed was to protect the United States’ “investments” in [read:  theft of] General Motors and Chrysler.  It is clear to all that Congress and the Administration intended for this program to stimulate the economy and help the environment.  But I also believe that the government wanted to use this program to inflate the revenues at GM and Chrysler to make the American people less uneasy about the bailouts of those firms.  Think about it.  If you had just made a hugely unpopular move like taking over two iconic American automakers, you would do anything possible to convince the public that it was a good decision.  This includes funneling money to those companies to make their revenues look good.

My guess is that this program will actually hurt GM and Chrysler as compared to their competitors, namely Ford.  Why?  Well for one, a new Rasmussen poll found that 66% of Americans have at least “a somewhat favorable opinion of Ford.”  The same poll found that “General Motors is viewed favorably by 38%… and unfavorably by 56%”  It also found that 34% have at least somewhat favorable opinion of Chrysler “while 55% see the company unfavorably.”  The American people are angry at the other two companies for taking taxpayer funds, and Ford is now perceived as the only American automaker that isnt owned by the government.

They also make much better cars now than they used to.  I love my 2007 Ford Fusion.

In another poll that was published on the same day, Rasmussen also found that 46%of Americans are more likely to buy a Ford because they did not take a government bailout (13% said they were less likely and 37% said it didnt make a difference).  41% OF Americans also believe that quality of GM’s cars will get worse now that the government owns the company, while only 19% think it will get better.

[Investors like me know this.  For the sake of disclosure now that the FTC has announced that it is going after bloggers, I am a proud stockholder of Ford Motor Company and have seen the stock rise by about 18% in the last week.  Still, I am 100% opposed to this program.]

Additionally, the government’s intention was to get people to purchase cars with much better fuel efficiency and the new Ford Fusion Hybrid gets 41 MPG and was rated higher than the Toyota Camry Hybrid, making it an attractive choice for anyone who decides to trade in their clunker.

If the intention was to increase the revenues at GM and Chrysler, this program will backfire, as do most government programs.  My prediction is that the market shares of Ford, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and Kia will rise at the expense of GM and Chrysler.

This program also raises further questions about the competency of the government.  Love or hate this program, it was administered poorly.  No, this doesnt “prove that government cant run our health care system.”  It should, however raise at least some concern about the capability of government to administer programs.  It should also serve as a warning that when the government offers people a massive discount to use a service, people will take advantage of it (people respond to incentives).  The government and taxpayers should at least use the example of this program to think about what the effects of what will be perceived by many to be free health care will have on an already strained system.

This program should remind us to be weary of government estimates.  The $1,000,000,000 [$1 billion] allotted for this program was expected to last at least until the program’s anticipated end date of November 1st.  Instead of lasting for 4 months as estimated, it lasted less than one month before it exhausted its funding.  If the government was this wrong–way wrong–on estimates for its costs of giving out coupons for discounts on cars, can you imagine how far off could its estimates of the costs of administering a $1,000,000,000,000 [$1 trillion] “free” health care program be?

Its worth thinking about.

Americanly Yours,

Phred Barnet

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General Motors declared bankruptcy yesterday morning. This move had been much anticipated and probably didnt surprise anyone.

Presidents Bush and Obama gave General Motors billions of dollars to help it avoid bankruptcy, yet the inevitable still happened. No matter what your stance on bailouts and government interventions are, you probably agree that this money was wasted.  If you support bailouts and nationalizations, then you would probably argue that the money was wasted because the government could have and should have) bailed out and taken over GM six months ago.  If you are opposed to bailouts and nationalizations, then you would be opposed to any and all government assistance for GM.  More money will be wasted on GM in the future.

According to the Washington Post:  “During the GM bankruptcy, the United States aims to raise its investment in the company to $50 billion, take a majority stake in it and name most of its directors, giving the government unprecedented control over one of the nation’s largest manufacturers.”

I dont think that you can seriously deny that the United States is no longer a Capitalist Nation.  We have now officially morphed into a socialist country.  Yesterday was another sad day for Capitalists who again were forced to watch while the government continued to destroy this once great Nation.

President Obama and other supporters of these interventions have promised that they will be temporary.  I dont believe this and neither should you.  Thomas Sowell says that “nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.”  Historically this has proven again and again to be true.  There are still programs in effect from the Great Depression which were said to be temporary at the time.  A 3% excise tax on phone use was enacted as a temporary measure in 1898 to help pay for the Spanish-American War.  This “temporary” tax lasted 108 years until it was finally ended in 2006.

Government programs, actions, and interventions tend not to end.  It is important to oppose them as they happen, while these actions are still fresh in the minds of the public.  If the government does not sell its stake in General Motors within the next few years the vast majority of people will cease to care, opposition will subside, and the government will continue to control General Motors forever (or at least for quite a long time).

Even if our government sells its stake in General Motors within the next few years, there will still be a tendency for future administrations to use Presidents Bush and Obama’s actions as precedents for future interventions and nationalizations.

President Obama told NBC’s Brian Williams that the government would be taking a controlling stake in General Motors. He also said that he essentially had no choice but to do so.

But, President Obama did have a choice.  A liquidation bankruptcy of GM might have caused temporary stress for the economy, but this stress would have been temporary and would have smoothed out in the long run.  Under a liquidation bankruptcy, General Motors would have been broken into pieces and sold off piece by piece to the highest bidder.  Every brand name, factory, patent, and all real estate owned by GM would have been sold off.  The money recovered from these sales would have gone to pay as much of the money owed to GM bondholders–who  to the company in good faith–as possible.

The brand names would have been sold–probably to existing car companies, although they possibly would have been sold to venture capitalists who were looking to start a new car company.  The factories would have been sold to new owners (or the same venture capitalists) who would either continue to make cars in them or would refit them for some other kind of production.  GM’s patents would have fetched lucrative amounts of money at auction.  Purchasing these patents at a discounted auction price could have helped move other automakers years forward in their research and development, saving them billions of dollars.  For example, GM was years ahead of the competition in developing fuel cell cars.

The auction process might have been stressful while it was being sorted out, but it would have been an efficient way to deal with General Motors.  Instead, our government has pledged to loan GM an additional $50,000,000,000 [$50 billion].  However, GM owes creditors $172,800,000,000 [$172.8 billion], meaning that the government’s invenstment will be unlikely to stop at $50,000,000,000 [$50 billion], just as AIG’s initial $85,000,000,000 [$85 billion] bailout ended up doubling.

You can argue that government control of General Motors will save American jobs, although this argument is tenuous at best. General Motors is losing money for several reasons including: their cars are not up to par with those of Honda, Toyota, Nissan, and Ford, their union contracts force them to pay their current and former workers much more money than similar workers at Honda, Toyota, and Nissan, and they have been slower to innovate than have their Asian rivals.

Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have been continually building more and more of their cars in America, while General Motors, Chrysler, and Ford have been building less. Last November, I wrote an article detailing my opposition to all bailouts, but said that if the government had to bailout auto companies, I would rather it bailout the successful ones (ie Toyota and Honda).  At least this way money would be flowing to innovative companies who have a chance of paying back the loans, rather than to sluggish companies who refuse to adapt and will be unlikely to repay any loans.

The United States government now has a controlling stake in General Motors and a very large stake in Chrysler.  General Motors, the world’s second largest automaker, is now owned by the United States government (with a minority stake being held by the UAW).  Chrysler is now owned by the UAW (with a sizable minority stake being held by the US government).  Additionally, a significant percentage of Nissan is owned by the French government (the French government owns 15.7% of Renault which owns 44.4% of Nissan).  This is not fair to Ford, Honda, and Toyota. These three companies have to compete with three large automakers who are owned by large and powerful governments who have made it a matter of public policy to ensure that the automakers they own do not disappear.  As a Ford stockholder, I’m pretty mad that a company that I have invested in (because I believe in its products and its management) now has to compete with a powerful government which can print money to pump into Ford’s competitors as it sees fit.  Additionally, the US government also had the right to increase regulations on the auto industry which can hurt Ford and benefit its government owned competitors.

As unfair as this is to Ford’s shareholders, this is extremely unfair to the taxpayers who will have to foot the bill for these bailouts.  The tens of billions of dollars in additional funding for GM are not the whole picture.  American consumers will have to pay thousands more for their cars in the future due to the inefficiencies being created by the government bailiuts.  The United States government is keeping car companies in business which have no business being in business.  It is also mandating that certain GM models now be produced in America, rather than in foreign countries.  While this may sound like a good thing in an economy that is hemorrhaging jobs, it is not.  GM has chosen to produce cars overseas becaue it is cheaper to do so.  Simply put, forcing GM to produce cars here will raise the cost of those cars and will make American consumers poorer.

Americanly Yours,

Phred Barnet

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Today was an interesting day for automaker news.

First, President Obama took an unprecedented step of basically firing a private sector CEO, by requesting that GM CEO Rick Wagoner step down:  “On Friday I was in Washington for a meeting with administration officials.  In the course of that meeting, they requested that I ‘step aside’ as CEO of GM, and so I have.”

GM’s shareholders should have probably fired Wagoner at least 5 years ago.  They didnt.  Who ran the company should have been of no importance to the government.  However, rather than allow GM to go bankrupt, the US government (in its infinite wisdom) gave GM and Chrysler $17,400,000,000 [$17.4 billion] in loans and took an ownership stake in the two companies, effectively nationalizing 2 of the 3 American automakers.

My “favorite” part of this was that the government gave GM their $13,400,000,000 [$13.4 billion] knowing that GM planned on cutting 47,000 American jobs.  That means that we paid GM $285,000 for each job that they cut.  Just wonderful.

But, back to the issue at hand.  My opinion is that President Obama took a dangerous and shameful step by demanding the resignation of a private sector CEO.  One of my main problems with the bailouts besides the economic aspect is that they are impossible to handle objectively.  For example, Bank of America has received $45,000,000,000 [$45 billion] from the government–over 3 times the amount received by GM, yet Bank of America’s CEO Ken Lewis has kept his job.  The same is true at Citigroup and many other government owned banks including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.

And of course there is Chrysler.  Chrysler was bailed out the same day as GM, and yet their CEO, Bob Nardelli has retained his job and has not been “asked to resign” by President Obama.

The law and our government needs to be objective and treat everyone the same way.  If the government feels that it is necessary to bailout and take over the operations of private companies, then it needs to treat all companies which receive government aid in the same manner.  It is the only fair way.

But the news doesnt end there.  President Obama also made some interesting statements today.  While he did grant Chrysler an additional month’s worth of aid and gave GM an additional two months worth of aid (by the way another example of the government active subjectively, rather than objectively), he signaled that the two companies might be forced to file for bankruptcy.  A government review board went over the restructuring plans submitted by the two companies and decided that they were not viable plans, thus allowing President Obama to take a much needed hard line on the companies.

I tenatively applaud this step.  We just have to see how this works out.

I hope that President Obama is serious when he says that GM and Chrysler will be allowed to fail if they do not take the necessary steps.  Those steps include negotiating further concessions from the labor unions and bondholders.  My guess is that the companies will be able to gain the necessary concessions and then will receive more aid from the government, allowing President Obama to gain credit for taking the hardline approach, but clearing the way for the government to send more taxpayer [or freshly printed] money to these companies.

Americanly Yours,

Phred Barnet

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President Obama and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner have asked Congress to grant the Treasury Secretary the power to “unwind” financial companies that pose systematic risks to our economy.

But, the government already has the power to unwind large insolvent companies which pose systematic risks to our economy.  Large financial–or any other type of companies–can be unwound through bankruptcy proceedings.  Bankruptcy courts can order the liquidation of a company and the sale of its assets.  There is no need to grant this power to the Treasury Secretary, or President Obama, or any one man.

Rather than bailing out companies, and then bailing out our bailouts like we have done with AIG and are about to do with GM and Chrysler, we should send these failed companies to bankruptcy courts and sell of their assets.  Rather than pumping TRILLIONS of dollars into failed enterprises, we should have quickly auctioned off these companies, their properties and assets, and anything else related to them.  Yes, these companies and their assets and receivables may have only sold for pennies on the dollar, but it would have been done without taxpayer money and would have allowed for the quick return to profits (as the purchasing price would have been low enough so that the purchaser could anticipate earning a profit).

You may be saying to yourself that I have said this on previous posts countless times.  You are right.  But, our government is not learning from these recent mistakes.  Instead of learning, we are repeating them over and over again, making things worse and worse and then blaming capitalism for the failures of the government.  For a man who repeatedly criticized President Bush for “staying the course,” Mr. Obama has sure picked a terrible course to stay.  So, for as long as Congress and President Obama continue to repeat their mistakes over and over again, I will continue to repeat myself over and over again, hoping that somehow my words reach their eyes and spark a change of direction.

But, back to the new proposal.  Look at it like this:  the government now controls most of the banking system.  Imagine that it creates new “recommended” lending standards to support an administration program–expansion of loans to increase home ownership for example.   If a company that is not owned by the government were to decide that these new government “recommendations” are too risky and are not a good investment and decided not to participate, the government could effectively force the company to comply by threatening to “wind it down.”

This is a dangerous, undemocratic, and authoritarian proposal which gives the Federal Government way too much control over the financial industry.

Americanly Yours,

Phred Barnet

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Ive had these articles in my “draft” folder for a while and I meant to post them here over a month ago.  The first one is an article on GM’s retirement plan.  The second article is a very interesting and well written article from our friends across the pond.  Enjoy.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123500874299418721.html

A wonderful article about the concept of a “free lunch.”

Americanly Yours,

Phred Barnet

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