Americanly Yours

A few weeks back, several of my friends and I exchanged arguments over email.  I wanted to pull a quote from a response of one of my friends and use it to talk about interest rates.

“. . . TBILLS at the lowest rates ever!  We can print money for nearly no intrest [sic]. . .”

I think that this is a common misconception among people.  Yes, the FED has a target rate of 0-1/4% for the Federal Funds Rate, but this rate is only the rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans.  This is not the rate for US Government bonds which are issued to fund government debt.  In fact, US government bonds have a much higher interest rate than the overnight fed funds rate.  Government bonds are largely traded on the open market which means that they are priced through supply and demand.  The current rate on a 10 year bond (about 3%) can be found here.

We have a large national debt that is growing every day.  Of the money that we owe, our debt to China is over $1,000,000,000,000 [$1 trillion].  To continue to fund ambitious “stimulus” bills, government bailouts, and large social welfare programs like medicare and the coming socialized health care scheme, we will have to continue to borrow funds from American citizens and foreign nations.

As we increase our money supply, our money becomes worth less.  As we increase our borrowing, we have to pay higher interest rates in order to entice countries and private citizens to loan money to us.  Both of these things are happening at the same time, and happening during a global recession.  This leads me to believe that interest rates on government bonds will be rising (if no one wants to loan us money and we want to keep running a deficit, we have to raise interest rates).

We have more than doubled our money supply in the last year!  If you dont believe me, see the chart below, or click here.

But, things dont end there.  China’s Premier, Wen Jiabao recently expressed worry about the value of the dollar.  He said “Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I’m a little bit worried.”  Apparently, there is even debate within China about whether or not to continue to invest so heavily in American bonds. And of course, this is coming at a time when China is dealing with their own economic problems.  China needs to have high levels of annual economic growth in order to pacify their increasingly restless (and violent) rural populations.

China just announced a stimulus of their own totaling over $500 billion.  The money being spent on that stimulus is money that cannot be loaned to the American government.

One thing that very few people are aware of is that President Obama’s anticipated budgets for his 8 years as president (assuming that he wins a second term) have the national debt doubling to over $20,000,000,000,000 [$20 trillion]!  In order to finance these massive budget deficits, we have to borrow this money from someone.  If China turns off the loans, it is going to be very hard to find the money to continue to fund massive national programs, while fighting two wars and bailing out American industries.  China has us right where they want us… and they know it.

Americanly Yours,

Phred Barnet

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A year ago, America was completely different than it is now.  In the last year, the government has nationalized the banking industry, taken over the worlds largest insurer (wasting well over $100 billion in the process), and taken control of two iconic car companies.  Last week, Congress agreed to a plan that will cost nearly $800 billion.  Between actions by Congress and the Obama administration, as much as $3 trillion was pledged to government bailouts last week! This amounts to 21.7% of American GDP (US GDP is 13.7 trillion).  This new spending is more than government’s entire 2008 budget of just under $3 trillion.  Every penny of this money is being financed with debt.  This will raise the size of the national debt substantially.  Our national debt currently stands at roughly $10.7 trillion.  If we add another $3 trillion to the debt, our debt will increase by 28% and will be roughly equal to our GDP!

Of course, even Mr. Obama has admitted that there is no guarantee that these plans will work.  Even more interesting, he has said that these plans will have little effect before 2010.  This is particularly interesting because the non-partisan CBO recently estimated that the recession will supposedly be over in mid 2009 even if these “stimulus” plans werent passed, meaning that Mr. Obama’s plans wouldnt even begin working until after the economy has already started to heal itself.

But, lets pretend that Mr. Obama’s boldest predictions are correct and that this plan will create 4 million new jobs (although he says it will create or save 3-4 million jobs).  Let us also assume that each of these jobs is a high paying job of $100,000 a year and that these jobs are permanent jobs that will never go away in the future, regardless of future circumstances.  According to both H&R Block’s tax calculator and the Heritage Foundation’s much simpler tax calculator, a single person earning $100,000 pays $19,472 in Federal taxes.  So, the 4 million jobs that we are pretending this plan will create will return $77.888 billion in taxes per year to the federal government.  Excluding any interest (which will likely be a hefty sum and will go countries like China), it will take the government about 35.5 years to recoup the money!

If, however, this plan still creates 4 million jobs but these jobs pay $50,000 per year instead of $100,000, the government will collect $6,606 in taxes per person totaling $26.424 billion in taxes per year.   Under these circumstances, it will take the government 113.5 years to recoup the money!

However, I made a little Excel spreadsheet assuming that the government would have to pay 3% interest on these new loans.  This is a generous assumption, considering that the average rate on treasury bills has been much higher.  I used both of the above jobs assumptions in my calculations and found that the government will actually never be able to recoup this money if interest is factored in! Check it out for yourself.

Americanly Yours,

Phred Barnet

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